- Who are you? (Name, year, major)
- Computational skills (if any)
- programming, statistical analysis, …

- What do you want to get from this class?
- Ask me a question about computational modeling
- Something interesting about yourself

For Thursday:

- Download and install NetLogo on your computer.
- URL in syllabus and assignment sheet

- Set up Box account
- Details in syllabus and assignment sheet
- https://vanderbilt.box.com
- Make folder for this class with your last name:
- lastname_EES_4760 or lastname_EES_5760
- Share it with me as Editor
- Homework goes in subfolders:
- HW_1, HW_2, …

- Simulate individuals:
- Autonomous
- Heterogeneous
- Quasi-local
- Bounded rationality

- Simulate environment
- Emphasize simplicity, minimal assumptions
**Emergence:**Large-scale phenomena arise from small-scale individual interactions- Interesting when large-scale is not easily predicted from small-scale

- Play with economics
- Simple agents trade with each other
Confirm 1

^{st}welfare theorem:Trading leads to Pareto equilibrium

- Find conditions for satisfying theorem:
- Not necessary for traders to be completely rational
- How much rationality do you need?

- Equilibration can be slow
- Time-varying preferences can prevent equilibration

- Not necessary for traders to be completely rational

- Dynamics of agent-based models connect to nonlinear dynamics and chaos

Prisoner’s Dilemma Game:

A \ B **B Cooperates****B Defects****A Cooperates**(3,3) (0,4) **A Defects**(4,0) (1,1) - Nash Equilibrium:
- No matter what player A does, player B is better off defecting
- No matter what player B does, player A is better off defecting
**End result:**Both players end up worse off than if they had both cooperated.

- R. Axelrod (1981)
- Tournament of algorithms
- Winner: “tit-for-tat”
- Evolutionary Game Theory:
- Basic principles of good strategies:
- Be nice
- Be provocable
- Don’t be too envious
- Don’t be too clever

- Basic principles of good strategies:
- Nay & Gilligan (2015)
- Real-world strategies involve randomness, unpredictability

Long House Valley (flourished ca. 1800 BCE–1300 CE)

- Paleoclimate:
- Assess different kinds of soil
- Assess tree rings, pollen, etc.
- Reconstruct drought severity index

- Society:
- Archaeology gives #, location of households

- Make assumptions about:
- # people per household,
- Agriculture,
- …

- Devise rules for behavior:
- Marriage, reproduction, migration, …

- Simulate years 800–1300

Simulated | Historical |
---|---|

- Make agents heterogeneous
- Fit parameters to historical data